Rock, Paper, Scissors
Oct. 6th, 2006 01:02 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
theyellowhobbitAt some point in high school a group of people from my shul were going to a NFTY event. There were 2 cars and 3 groups of people who wanted to be together, so one of the groups had to be split up. So we did rocks, paper, scissors to determine who would be in what car.
My friend L.K. did the rocks, paper, scissoring on our behalf. I forget how the game played out, but in the end she lost.
But at the time, based on the first move, I predicted what the opponent was going to do, and would have done something differently than her, and would have won for us.
Somehow my mind today wandered on the topic of predicting the moves of others.
So let's take a look at rock, paper, scissors, in a best out of 3 scenario. The key here is that I'm assuming that you have a worthy opponent, who is both thinking ahead and thinking that you'll think ahead. If this is not true then my strategy probably doesn't work (like if they beat you and think you'll just do what they just did. I'm not counting that as a possibility here):
And Basic Rules: Rock crushes scissors, scissors cut paper, paper covers rock. Thus each of the 3 moves can beat something, lose to something, and tie itself.
Opening move: Usually people will do rock, since it's the first thing that they hear. However, if you're expecting the other to do rock, you could go with paper. Though then if you think they'd be doing paper because they think you'd be doing rock, then you could try scissors. But then again they might just stick with rock. Odds are they won't start with scissors. So I'd go for paper in that first move.
Move 2a: If you both tied with rock, then they might do paper now to counter that. Or scissors becuase they think you'll do paper. Probably not rock again. So I'd go for scissors this time, and either you'll win or tie again.
Move 2b: If you beat them with paper then they might do scissors now, but then they might think that you know that and will do rock to crush their scissors, and could go for paper in that case. I don't think they'd do rock. So I would go for scissors here, too.
Move 2c: If they've just beat you with paper, they'll probably think you'll go for scissors now, and will thus do rock. Though they might think you'll go for paper since they think you think that they'll do rock now, and thus they'll do scissors. This one is tricky. I don't think they think you'd do rock again. I'd go for rock again, though really I don't like any of those moves.
Move 2d:If you beat them with rock on the first turn, which is highly unlikely, they might think you'll do scissors now and thus will do rock. They probably won't do scissors again. So you should do rock or paper, probably paper now.
Move 3a1: If you won with scissors, they might go for scissors now since they think you'll do paper to counter their rock. Or they think you'll do rock to counter their scissors, and thus do paper. Probably not rock. I'd go for scissors.
Move 3a2: You tied with rock. You tied with scissors. They might think you'll try paper now, just because no one has done it, and thus will do scissors. Or they might try paper since no one has done it. Or rock...Hmm...I think it's possible they'd do any of the 3- paper if they're not thinking, scissors if they think you're not thinking, rock if they think you're thinking ahead. So do scissors if they're an average person, rock if they're only ahead one step, and paper if they're trying to out think you and know you're trying to out think them.
Move3b: You've just beaten them twice. First with paper, now with scissors. Go you! Since this is best out of three, you don't really need another move now. Unless they want it to be best out of 5 now. So in order to get that last win, let's assume they're seeing the pattern. They'll think you'll think they'll do rock, and thus will do scissors. I'd go for rock.
Move3c:They beat you with paper. You beat them with rock if you're still in the game. Assuming they're in the out thinking mode, they think that you think they'll do paper, and thus will do scissors. Unless they think you'll do rock again to counter it and will do paper. I'd go for scissors.
Move3d1:If you beat them with rock and paper, you won. If you beat them with rock and lost with paper, then they're 2 steps ahead of you. They'll think you'll do scissors or they think you'll do paper (they probably don't think you'll do the obvious rock). So they'll be doing rock or scissors. I'd go with rock. You'll either win or tie with them.
Move3d2:If you beat them with rock and they tied you with paper then they're thinking in out thinking mode. They think you'll do rock to counter their scissors, and thus will do paper. Or they'll think you'll do scissors and will do rock. They probably don't think you'll do paper, so they're probably not going to scissor it. Logic would say go with paper here, but my gut feeling says go with rock. I'm not sure why.
Move4d (going with 3d1): You won with rock. You lost with paper. You tied with rock. They think you'll do rock or scissors next, and thus will do paper or rock. So I'd go for paper.
I guess my general rule is that you shouldn't go for the thing that will beat what they just did, if they're being simple and think you'll do that. Then of the other 2, do the one that can beat the other. If they think you're thinking ahead, then find the obvious move, rule it out as something they'd think you'd do, since they won't think it. But then it actually works out that the obvious move is the one that can either beat or tie the counter-moves to the non-obvious moves. So then do the obvious. Somehow this all works out in my head in the flow of the game, but I'm doing a terrible job of explaining it, even with the examples behind the cut.
But yeah, that's my logic. Anyone up for a game of rocks, paper, scissors?
(Wow, scissors is another one of those weird words to write...)
My friend L.K. did the rocks, paper, scissoring on our behalf. I forget how the game played out, but in the end she lost.
But at the time, based on the first move, I predicted what the opponent was going to do, and would have done something differently than her, and would have won for us.
Somehow my mind today wandered on the topic of predicting the moves of others.
So let's take a look at rock, paper, scissors, in a best out of 3 scenario. The key here is that I'm assuming that you have a worthy opponent, who is both thinking ahead and thinking that you'll think ahead. If this is not true then my strategy probably doesn't work (like if they beat you and think you'll just do what they just did. I'm not counting that as a possibility here):
And Basic Rules: Rock crushes scissors, scissors cut paper, paper covers rock. Thus each of the 3 moves can beat something, lose to something, and tie itself.
Opening move: Usually people will do rock, since it's the first thing that they hear. However, if you're expecting the other to do rock, you could go with paper. Though then if you think they'd be doing paper because they think you'd be doing rock, then you could try scissors. But then again they might just stick with rock. Odds are they won't start with scissors. So I'd go for paper in that first move.
Move 2a: If you both tied with rock, then they might do paper now to counter that. Or scissors becuase they think you'll do paper. Probably not rock again. So I'd go for scissors this time, and either you'll win or tie again.
Move 2b: If you beat them with paper then they might do scissors now, but then they might think that you know that and will do rock to crush their scissors, and could go for paper in that case. I don't think they'd do rock. So I would go for scissors here, too.
Move 2c: If they've just beat you with paper, they'll probably think you'll go for scissors now, and will thus do rock. Though they might think you'll go for paper since they think you think that they'll do rock now, and thus they'll do scissors. This one is tricky. I don't think they think you'd do rock again. I'd go for rock again, though really I don't like any of those moves.
Move 2d:If you beat them with rock on the first turn, which is highly unlikely, they might think you'll do scissors now and thus will do rock. They probably won't do scissors again. So you should do rock or paper, probably paper now.
Move 3a1: If you won with scissors, they might go for scissors now since they think you'll do paper to counter their rock. Or they think you'll do rock to counter their scissors, and thus do paper. Probably not rock. I'd go for scissors.
Move 3a2: You tied with rock. You tied with scissors. They might think you'll try paper now, just because no one has done it, and thus will do scissors. Or they might try paper since no one has done it. Or rock...Hmm...I think it's possible they'd do any of the 3- paper if they're not thinking, scissors if they think you're not thinking, rock if they think you're thinking ahead. So do scissors if they're an average person, rock if they're only ahead one step, and paper if they're trying to out think you and know you're trying to out think them.
Move3b: You've just beaten them twice. First with paper, now with scissors. Go you! Since this is best out of three, you don't really need another move now. Unless they want it to be best out of 5 now. So in order to get that last win, let's assume they're seeing the pattern. They'll think you'll think they'll do rock, and thus will do scissors. I'd go for rock.
Move3c:They beat you with paper. You beat them with rock if you're still in the game. Assuming they're in the out thinking mode, they think that you think they'll do paper, and thus will do scissors. Unless they think you'll do rock again to counter it and will do paper. I'd go for scissors.
Move3d1:If you beat them with rock and paper, you won. If you beat them with rock and lost with paper, then they're 2 steps ahead of you. They'll think you'll do scissors or they think you'll do paper (they probably don't think you'll do the obvious rock). So they'll be doing rock or scissors. I'd go with rock. You'll either win or tie with them.
Move3d2:If you beat them with rock and they tied you with paper then they're thinking in out thinking mode. They think you'll do rock to counter their scissors, and thus will do paper. Or they'll think you'll do scissors and will do rock. They probably don't think you'll do paper, so they're probably not going to scissor it. Logic would say go with paper here, but my gut feeling says go with rock. I'm not sure why.
Move4d (going with 3d1): You won with rock. You lost with paper. You tied with rock. They think you'll do rock or scissors next, and thus will do paper or rock. So I'd go for paper.
I guess my general rule is that you shouldn't go for the thing that will beat what they just did, if they're being simple and think you'll do that. Then of the other 2, do the one that can beat the other. If they think you're thinking ahead, then find the obvious move, rule it out as something they'd think you'd do, since they won't think it. But then it actually works out that the obvious move is the one that can either beat or tie the counter-moves to the non-obvious moves. So then do the obvious. Somehow this all works out in my head in the flow of the game, but I'm doing a terrible job of explaining it, even with the examples behind the cut.
But yeah, that's my logic. Anyone up for a game of rocks, paper, scissors?
(Wow, scissors is another one of those weird words to write...)
